Drones on the Frontlines: Taiwan’s Struggle to Build an Advanced Defense Program
In recent years, the role of drones in warfare has gained significant prominence. Conflicts across various regions, including Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, have underscored the strategic value of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in modern combat scenarios. Taiwan, conscious of the escalating threat from China, recognizes the urgency of developing a formidable drone program that can enhance its defense capabilities.
Taiwan’s ambitions are ambitious; the island aims to manufacture 180,000 drones annually by 2028. However, the reality starkly contrasts this target, with fewer than 10,000 drones produced last year. The island is wrestling with the challenge of establishing a drone industry from the ground up, despite possessing the critical knowledge and infrastructure necessary for its development.
Cathy Fang, a policy analyst at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET), emphasizes Taiwan’s potential, asserting that the island "definitely has the ability to make the best drones in the world." Yet, the question remains: Why is progress slow?
A recent report from DSET highlights several structural obstacles that hinder Taiwan’s drone production. These include steep manufacturing costs, limited domestic procurement opportunities, and a scarcity of foreign orders. Such challenges have contributed to the sluggish growth of the drone industry, with estimates indicating a production range of 8,000 to 10,000 UAVs over the past year.
The specter of a Chinese invasion looms larger than ever. With Beijing’s commitment to modernizing the People’s Liberation Army by 2027, Taiwanese officials warn that the timeline for potential military action could arrive sooner than anticipated. Analysts predict that a Chinese offensive might involve a comprehensive assault encompassing air, sea, and land forces.
Faced with this imminent threat, Taiwan must urgently innovate avenues for self-defense. An American military strategist noted that Taiwan’s defensive approach might transform the Taiwan Strait into a "hellscape," employing swarms of UAVs to disrupt incoming Chinese military assets. The objective is not to obliterate China’s formidable naval and aerial capabilities outright but to delay aggression, providing critical time for Taiwan’s allies to respond.
In response to these challenges, Taiwan has implemented proactive measures. In 2022, the government initiated the Drone National Team, designed to synergize government resources and industry expertise to bolster the fledgling drone sector. Drawing lessons from Ukraine, which has effectively integrated small, versatile UAVs into its defense strategy, Taiwan aims to leverage similar tactics. Ukraine’s considerable domestic drone industry has enabled it to pursue ambitious programs, including the procurement of millions of small drones and advanced unmanned systems.
As Taiwan endeavors to elevate its drone capabilities in response to growing threats, understanding the potential tactics and techniques employed by adversaries remains crucial. The MITRE ATT&CK framework provides an insightful context for evaluating the cybersecurity landscape impacting drone technology. Possible tactics include initial access strategies that could facilitate unauthorized exploitation of drone systems, persistence techniques that allow adversaries to maintain access over time, and privilege escalation methods that enable them to elevate their control over critical systems.
In conclusion, Taiwan’s journey toward establishing an advanced drone industry reflects a high-stakes defense initiative amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Addressing the structural issues within its drone program will be pivotal as the island strives to bolster its cybersecurity and military resilience in an era where drones have become integral to modern warfare.
