Shipping Traffic Hits Critical Low Amid U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict
The vital oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz has almost completely ceased operations following the outbreak of hostilities involving the United States and Israel against Iran. According to a new analysis, tankers navigating the region face significant risks, including military assaults and a notable increase in GPS jamming incidents.
Since the launch of the initial US-Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, over 1,100 vessels operating throughout the Gulf have experienced disruptions to their GPS and Automatic Identification System (AIS) technology. Ami Daniel, CEO of maritime intelligence firm Windward, reports that these disruptions have led to ships being inaccurately displayed on maps, with some even appearing as if they are on land, including locations near a nuclear power facility.
The analysis underscores a critical risk to maritime navigation in the region, which has expanded its conflict footprint to involve multiple Middle Eastern countries. At least three tankers have sustained damage due to the ongoing violence, raising alarms among maritime safety officials about the increasingly hazardous conditions for shipping operations.
Daniel notes a significant escalation in GPS jamming efforts, revealing that the interference levels have surged beyond typical baselines. The heightened risk now associated with entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz is alarming, as the operational dynamics change rapidly amid geopolitical tensions.
Over recent years, the incidence of attacks targeting GPS and navigation systems has been on the rise, spurred primarily by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Such electronic interference can disrupt not only personal devices but also critical safety and navigation systems used by aircraft and marine vessels. The electronic attacks primarily manifest as jamming, where satellite signals are overwhelmed, or spoofing, which can misrepresent the actual positions of vessels on digital maps.
Inaccurate location data caused by these tactics can lead to navigational errors, which increase the likelihood of collisions between vessels, groundings, or even catastrophic oil spills. Within warzones, electronic interference often aims to disrupt the navigation of drones or guided munitions, which rely heavily on accurate location information for targeting.
Analysis of shipping data by Windward indicates a marked increase in electronic disruptions across Iranian and surrounding waters since the conflict’s escalation. Daniel emphasizes that the majority of detected activities so far are attributed to jamming rather than spoofing. Windward has identified around 21 new clusters where AIS signals are being intentionally jammed in recent days.
The report from Windward points out that vessels have been mislocated at crucial sites such as airports and nuclear facilities, which poses serious navigation and compliance challenges. The firm also notes unusual patterns in vessel movements, with numerous ships observed in circular routes off the coasts of the UAE, Qatar, and Oman due to compromised navigation data.
Interference with GPS and AIS systems is not a new occurrence in the Strait of Hormuz. Significant jamming has been previously reported, with records indicating that such attacks have continued during times of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.
Even as commercial air travel has largely been suspended across the Middle East, there are signs that aircraft in the region are also susceptible to electronic interference. Reports indicate multiple instances of spoofing that have affected hundreds of flights, although the frequency of these incidents has decreased significantly following flight cancellations over the weekend.
As the situation in the Strait of Hormuz evolves, business leaders should remain vigilant about maritime threats posed by such electronic warfare tactics. The MITRE ATT&CK framework could provide a valuable lens to understand potential adversary tactics employed—ranging from initial access through communication disruption techniques that could severely undermine maritime safety. Companies operating in or near conflict zones must bolster their cybersecurity measures, factoring in these emerging threats.