In the midst of rising geopolitical tensions and a deteriorating trade conflict between the United States and China, international business travelers are experiencing increased trepidation about traveling to the Chinese mainland. The U.S. Department of State has issued a Level 2 travel advisory for China, urging people to “exercise increased caution” due to concerns regarding the “arbitrary enforcement of local laws.”
Despite such advisories, the situation on the ground is nuanced. Although there have been reports of detention of U.S. citizens, exit bans, and investigations into foreign company operations, for the majority of travelers, business continues as usual. Weekly, there are approximately 50 direct round-trip flights from the U.S. to China, and visa acquisition for business has become relatively more streamlined in certain cases.
However, the risks associated with traveling in this environment cannot be overlooked, particularly for those who may attract attention from the Chinese government. Isaac Stone Fish, CEO and founder of Strategy Risks, a business intelligence firm focused on China, remarks, “It’s less of a welcoming environment to Americans than it was in the 2010s.”
Stone Fish notes that while public statements from professionals working for global and U.S.-based firms may convey optimism about engaging with China, private discussions reveal a more cautious and pessimistic outlook. “Traveling to China for business has become more challenging than in previous years,” he observes.
Not long ago, China was actively encouraging a surge of foreign visitors and businesses. The Beijing Summer Olympics in 2008 marked a significant moment in China’s integration into the global community. The event, directed by filmmaker Zhang Yimou with a staggering budget of $300 million, showcased a spectacle of talent and ambition, attended by world leaders, including U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. It drew an audience of approximately 2 billion viewers worldwide.
One prominent theme of the Games was “Beijing Welcomes You.” China’s economy was flourishing, with a GDP of $4.42 trillion in 2008, reflecting a remarkable growth rate of 9 percent year-on-year. Foreign corporations were eager to establish a foothold in this burgeoning market, as exemplified by Apple’s retail expansions and Hollywood’s increased focus on integrating Chinese narratives into major films.
However, this optimistic view was soon overshadowed. In 2012, Xi Jinping ascended to power as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and subsequently became President. Under his administration, China began turning inward, instituting extensive anti-corruption campaigns aimed at purging political adversaries, alongside developing a far-reaching surveillance apparatus. Relations with Western nations deteriorated, exacerbated by the election of Donald Trump in 2016. The exodus of expatriate businesspeople has accelerated, notably during the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and China’s stringent “Zero Covid” policy.
This evolving landscape presents a complex scenario for American travelers and businesses looking to navigate China. As geopolitical dynamics shift, understanding the associated cybersecurity risks becomes paramount. Potential adversary tactics could resonate with frameworks found within the MITRE ATT&CK Matrix, where risks may include initial access methods, persistence strategies, and privilege escalation techniques. In this environment, vigilance and thorough risk assessment will be essential for those engaging with China’s market.