In 2025, leaders across the United States and the globe faced escalating conflicts in the Middle East, marked notably by military actions involving Israel and the US targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. Analysts raised concerns that President Trump’s decision to engage in such strikes could entangle the US in prolonged conflicts reminiscent of the “forever wars” he had previously committed to avoid. The ongoing violence in Gaza has spiraled into a humanitarian crisis, highlighting a disturbing trend: despite long-standing pledges from both Democratic and Republican administrations to minimize involvement in the region, the US appears to be drawn back into Middle Eastern affairs once again.
However, as we move into 2026, it is imperative that President Trump, his administration, Congress, and the American public recognize that the primary threats to US national interests and global stability are not confined to the Middle East but stem from autocratic regimes in China and Russia. The era of relative immunity from great power rivalry, which followed the Soviet Union’s collapse and the end of the Cold War, has drawn to a close. For the US to navigate this landscape of great power competition successfully, strategists must precisely assess these threats and formulate effective responses.
The prevailing narrative suggests that we have entered a new Cold War, primarily with Xi Jinping’s China and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. There are indeed parallels between the current dynamics of great power rivalry and the Cold War. Presently, the international balance of power is predominantly shaped by the US and China, akin to the stance of the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Additionally, an ideological contest persists, where the US, as a democracy, stands opposite the autocratic governance of China and Russia. All three states have historically sought to extend their global influence, mirroring the behavior of superpowers in the last century.
Nevertheless, significant distinctions exist between the Cold War era and today’s geopolitical climate. Applying the Cold War framework uniformly to the US-China rivalry can obscure as much as it clarifies.
First, while the current landscape is dominated by two superpowers, the United States retains a comparative advantage across various dimensions of power—military, economic, and ideological—especially when factoring in its alliances. Unlike the Cold War period, numerous mid-tier powers have emerged, including Brazil, India, and Indonesia, that are hesitant to align solely with either the US or China.
Second, the ideological competition between powers, though present, lacks the fervor evidenced during the Cold War. The Soviet Union aggressively pursued the global spread of communism, employing military interventions and proxy wars to achieve its objectives. In contrast, while Xi Jinping’s administration has pursued increasing global influence, it has not resorted to overtly aggressive means to disseminate its governing model or challenge the existing international order. Conversely, Putin’s tactics have included promoting illiberal nationalism and undermining the liberal order, but he does not possess the same capabilities as China for systemic revisionism.
