Potential Responses of Global Threat Actors to a Second Trump Administration

As speculation grows around a potential second term for former President Donald Trump, cybersecurity experts foresee a surge in hostile cyber activities. Predictions indicate a rise in Russian hacktivism, an increase in attacks on Western nations, and a proliferation of AI-fueled disinformation campaigns specifically targeting conflict zones.

During President Biden’s administration, the U.S. government implemented several legal actions against Russian cybercriminals implicated in extensive disinformation strategies (see: US Busts Russian AI-Driven Disinformation Operation). Should Trump reclaim the presidency, experts suggest it could embolden the Kremlin to elevate cyber assaults on nations like Moldova and others that gravitate towards the European Union. Recent aggressions seen in the Balkans hint at such a strategy, with Russian efforts focused on undermining government frameworks and fostering distrust in Western alliances.

According to Lou Steinberg, founder of CTM Insights, “An assertive Russia might amplify DDoS attacks against countries in the Balkans, Georgia, and Moldova, while simultaneously escalating AI-generated disinformation across Western Europe.” Countries like Kosovo have already faced threats due to their support for Ukraine, and Moldova is viewed as a target to destabilize confidence as it edges closer to EU integration.

Cyber threats could also escalate in the Middle East, with regional factions potentially ramping up DDoS campaigns against allies of Israel, while Iran quietly aims at Western infrastructure to diminish support for the nation. Neal Higgins, former deputy national cyber director, points out that the domestic and global cyber threat landscape might intensify amid an uncertain political environment following the election.

Higgins remarked, “Our adversaries will remain consistently pressured to exploit any opportunity to conduct cyber and information operations against our critical infrastructure, economic sectors, and political discussions.” There is an acute need to maintain vigilance during transitional periods.

The formation of Trump’s transition team has yet to reveal critical cyber leadership roles, though prior speculation suggests that his administration could shift strategies regarding AI governance, investment in the tech industry, and national security (see: How Trump’s Victory May Spark Tech and Cyber Policy Shift). It is anticipated that threat actors will likely focus on NATO governments, taking advantage of the uncertainty regarding the alliance’s future direction under Trump’s potential second term.

Concerns have also emerged about amplified aggression from both China and North Korea. Beijing is expected to heighten its cyber onslaught on essential infrastructures, potentially replicating methods utilized in the Salt Typhoon campaign. Legislative bodies pressed major telecommunications firms for quick responses in light of reports involving suspected Chinese hackers linked to Salt Typhoon breaching broadband providers’ systems (see: Congress Seeks Urgent Action After Chinese Telecom Hack).

Moreover, North Korea is poised to persist in its focus on cryptocurrency assets, redirecting gains towards the development of advanced cyber capabilities. As international initiatives against ransomware began under the Biden administration, there is apprehension that renewed efforts may diminish significantly under a new leadership (see: White House Pledges Major Deliverables at Ransomware Summit).

Brian Fox, Chief Technology Officer at Sonatype, highlights the fact that periods of uncertainty are often leveraged by threat actors to launch intensified infiltration attempts. He emphasizes the important role that the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) plays in safeguarding the nation’s infrastructure and guiding private entities in best practices.

Fox underscores, “CISA must remain a cornerstone in our national security strategy, both in protecting governmental infrastructure and in advising private sectors on robust cybersecurity measures.”