Recent events have drawn alarming parallels between predictive law enforcement and real-world violence. A disturbing incident occurred in Alvarado, Texas, where a reported coordinated ambush at a detention facility used fireworks to lure ICE agents before gunfire broke out on July 4, resulting in a police officer being shot in the neck. Nearly a dozen arrests have followed, with at least ten facing charges of attempted murder.
In light of rising tensions and potential protests, law enforcement agencies are increasingly turning to intelligence forecasting to identify groups they perceive as ideologically subversive or unpredictable. Individuals labeled as ‘transgressive’ may face heightened scrutiny, including monitoring and even detention without charges.
Social movement scholars recognize this shift in law enforcement’s approach to protests as a significant departure from earlier methodologies that focused on de-escalation and facilitation. Today, authorities often resort to proactive measures, including hefty surveillance and early disruption tactics, to maintain control over demonstrations. This includes closely monitoring organizers, restricting access to public spaces, and acting on perceived threats rather than actual behaviors.
Technological infrastructures originally designed for counter-terrorism are now repurposed to track protests at a grassroots level. Virtual investigation units increasingly target activists based on their online expressions and affiliations. Fusion centers, receiving funding from the Department of Homeland Security, frequently disseminate alerts that flag certain protest slogans or themes as potential indicators of impending violence, often without solid evidence of criminal activity.
Surveillance efforts have led to the compilation of detailed profiles, known colloquially as “baseball cards,” where analysts utilize advanced tools to gather information from subjects’ social media pages and to understand their networks. A recent document acquired by WIRED involves a DHS dossier on Mahmoud Khalil, a former Columbia University graduate and anti-war activist. This dossier drew heavily on data collected from Canary Mission, a controversial platform that profiles critics of Israeli military actions.
In a federal court hearing, a high-ranking DHS official acknowledged using material from Canary Mission to create over 100 dossiers concerning students and scholars, despite the organization’s questionable funding and the ideological bias of its data.
Threat assessments can condition law enforcement officers to expect confrontation, influencing their behavior during protests. The San Jose Police Department cited numerous intelligence bulletins from various agencies as crucial to shaping officer attitudes during civil unrest following protests in 2020, leading to significant public backlash and financial settlements related to police brutality.
Particular bulletins referenced by the SJPD classified protests as a potential front for “domestic terrorism,” warning about opportunistic attacks on officers while further discussing unconfirmed allegations of improvised weapons transport via U-Haul vans during demonstrations. Subsequent investigative reports revealed that many federal bulletins contained unverified claims and misleading information, such as alerts regarding parody websites, complicating the narrative surrounding protest activities.
These unverified threat alerts, often unclassified and available to the media, can frame public perception of protests, consequently legitimizing escalated police responses. The dissemination of uncorroborated warnings about domestic terrorism at protests in 2020 by prominent officials aided in amplifying fear and misunderstanding surrounding these gatherings.
Public sentiment is generally against heavy-handed approaches to protest management; however, when support does materialize, it is typically driven by fear. Research highlights that perceptions of protesters significantly impact opinions on the appropriateness of coercive measures, emphasizing how narratives shaped by officials and media can influence public emotion more than the actual actions of the protesters involved.
